Coalition of Prescribed Fire Councils, 17 pp. Urban and rural areas exist along a continuum from major metro areas to suburbs, small towns, and lightly populated places. Littell, J. S., D. L. Peterson, K. L. Riley, Y. Liu, and C. H. Luce, 2016: A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States. Today, even rural residents who engage in farming earn most of their incomes from off-farm employment. Spanger-Siegfried, E., M. Fitzpatrick, and K. Dahl, 2014: Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years. Deal: Virtually the entire state to be impacted by Irma.. Under future climate scenarios, the combination of extreme precipitation and higher tides due to local sea level rise will likely cause more frequent events of this intensity and magnitude.98, Increases in extreme rainfall events and high tide coastal floods due to future climate change could impact the quality of life of permanent residents as well as tourists visiting the low-lying and coastal regions of the Southeast. North Carolinas Blue Economy information series provides updates related to the states ocean economy and underlying natural resources. Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century. Stone, 2015: Rising heat wave trends in large US cities. European Commission, Insight_E, Stockholm, Sweden, 77 pp. - Products: Tobacco products, informational technology. In fact, the majority of the non-metropolitan counties in the coastal region have lost residents since 2010. Camp, and L. Dundon, 2015: Assessing the vulnerability of Tennessee transportation assets to extreme weather. For example, a rural municipality can increase tax rates to benefit local schools. Harrison, C., and J. Popke, 2011: Because you got to have heat: The networked assemblage of energy poverty in eastern North Carolina. Most of the rural population does not depend on natural resources for their livelihoods. While well known for agriculture and forestry, rural areas also support manufacturing and tourism.250, In 2013, approximately 34% of the U.S. manufacturing output, or about $700 billion (dollar year not reported), came from the Southeast and Texas, including rural areas.255 While manufacturing growth has been particularly strong in the Southeast in recent years, future climate changes would pose challenges for economic competitiveness. Broadband adoption recommendations. Day, R. Boumans, and K. Bagstad, 2010: Gaining Ground: Wetlands, Hurricanes and the Economy: The Value of Restoring the Mississippi River Delta. Rainfall totals across the region exceeded amounts that would be expected to occur once every 1,000 years (or a less than 0.1% annual probability of occurrence), causing the Amite and Comite Rivers to surge past their banks and resulting in some 50,000 homes across the region filling with more than 18 inches of water.85 Nearly 10 times the number of homes received major flooding (18 inches or more) during this event compared to a historic 1983 flood in Baton Rouge, and the damage resulted in more than 2 million cubic yards of curbside debris from cleaning up homes (enough to fill over 600 Olympic-sized pools).86 A preceding event in northern Louisiana on March 812, 2016, caused $2.4 billion in damages (in 2017 dollars; $2.3 billion in 2015 dollars) and five casualties,84 illustrating that inland low-lying areas in the Southeast region are also vulnerable to flooding impacts. 7: Ecosystems, Figure 7.4).179 Some problematic invasive species are expected to be favored by changing winters. The combined effects of rising numbers of high tide flooding and extreme rainfall events, along with deteriorating storm water infrastructure, are increasing the frequency and magnitude of coastal and lowland flood events.45,88,89,90, The recent increases in flood risk have led many cities and counties to take adaptive actions to reduce these effects. Coral reefs are biologically diverse ecosystems that provide many societal benefits, including coastal protection from waves, habitat for fish, and recreational and tourism opportunities.238,239 However, coral reef mortality in the Florida Keys and across the globe has been very high in recent decades, due in part to warming ocean temperatures, nutrient enrichment, overfishing, and coastal development.240,241,242,243,244 Small increases in ocean temperature can cause corals to expel the symbiotic algae upon which they depend for nourishment. Kelleway, J. J., K. Cavanaugh, K. Rogers, I. C. Feller, E. Ens, C. Doughty, and N. Saintilan, 2017: Review of the ecosystem service implications of mangrove encroachment into salt marshes. Why do some coastal rural countries thrive while others struggle? Noss, R. F., 2012: Forgotten Grasslands of the South: Natural History and Conservation. The Southeast has more days with stagnant air masses than other regions of the country (40% of summer days) and higher levels of fine (small) particulate matter (PM2.5), which cause heart and lung disease.37 There is mixed evidence on the future health impacts of these pollutants. US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 278 pp. Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL, various pp. Governor declares state of emergency as Hurricane Irma's forecast path shifts.. High tide flooding is now posing daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in the Southeast.1,2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC, 2 pp. There are still gaps in knowledge regarding the potential effects of climate change on cities across the Southeast. Enwright, N. M., K. T. Griffith, and M. J. Osland, 2016: Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise. The cost savings from an increased level of production economies of scale mean, for instance, that a seafood processor with sizable business volume can bulk-purchase supplies at a lower rate than a smaller-scale competitor. Using bio-based and recycled materials in your finished products. WebIn the southern part of the coastal plain, refineries are king; Texas and Louisiana are the two largest producers and refiners of crude oil in the nation, and Louisiana has one of the largest shipping ports for oil in the US. Morin, C. W., A. C. Comrie, and K. Ernst, 2013: Climate and dengue transmission: Evidence and implications. Synthesis Report. 2018. They are found in the different sub-regions called: Post Oak-Belt, Piney Woods, and the Blackland Prairies. Mayor's Office of Sustainability, Atlanta, GA, 48 pp. Flood events in Charleston, South Carolina, have been increasing, and by 2045 the city is projected to face nearly 180 tidal floods (flooding in coastal areas at high tide) per year, as compared to 11 floods per year in 2014.45 These floods affect tourism, transportation, and the economy as a whole. doi: Sallenger, A. H., K. S. Doran, and P. A. Howd, 2012: Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America. Business and Industries - Coastal Plains - Google Sites Supplement to State of the Climate: National Overview for June 2017. Zhou, Y., and J. M. Shepherd, 2010: Atlanta's urban heat island under extreme heat conditions and potential mitigation strategies. Privacy Policy 8: Coastal, KM 1). A. Open-File Report 99-441. Mitsch, W. J., and J. G. Gosselink, 2007: Wetlands. Hence, the loss and/or replacement of foundation plant species, like salt marsh grasses, will have ecological and societal consequences in certain areas.135,145,157,158,159,160,161,162,163,164 While salt marsh and mangrove wetlands both contain valuable foundation species, some of the habitat and societal benefits provided by existing salt marsh habitats will be affected by the northward expansion of mangrove forests.145,158,160,161,164,165. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrologic cycle and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Bell, M. L., R. Goldberg, C. Hogrefe, P. L. Kinney, K. Knowlton, B. Lynn, J. Rosenthal, C. Rosenzweig, and J. Grace, C. L. Stagg, R. H. Day, S. B. Hartley, N. M. Enwright, A. S. From, M. L. McCoy, and J. L. McLeod, 2017: Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century. Wiley, New York,. Interviewees also identified low-income and minority communities, substandard housing, lack of access to vehicles for evacuation, limited modes of communication, and limited local government capacity as contributing factors to difficulties in emergency planning.288, The healthcare system in the Southeast is already overburdened and may be further stressed by climate change. Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, & Biodiversity, Built Environment, Urban Systems, & Cities, Climate Effects on U.S. International Interests, Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, & Complex Systems, Hawaii & U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, Reducing Risks Through Adaptation Actions, Reducing Risks Through Emissions Mitigation, Information in the Fourth National Climate Assessment, Scenarios for the National Climate Assessment, https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads, 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:ccafd]2.0.co;2, 10.1890/1540-9295(2005)003[0479:LOFSCF]2.0.CO;2, 10.1666/0094-8373(2000)26[194:ROPPAC]2.0.CO;2, 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.50dfc7f46798675fc63e7d7da563da76, 10.1890/0012-9658(1999)080[2045:SLRACF]2.0.CO;2, Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc. 1 U.S. Census Bureau. Many of the people who live here still farm tobacco, corn, wheat and soybeans, Ross Strategic, 2016: International Water and Climate Forum, 2015. The Coastal Plains has other resources such as fish, grain, citrus fruits, poultry, and helium is also produced there. By the late 21st century under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), the freeze-free season is expected to lengthen by more than a month. Consider a single shrimper with a 20-foot boat who can haul in 2,000 pounds of shrimp in a night. (See the dark brown counties in Figure 1.). Lewis, T.K. 7: Ecosystems).136,137. Between August 1115 2016, nearly half of southern Louisiana received at least 1214 inches of rainfall. Storm surge inundations at Cudjoe and the surrounding Keys were between 5 and 8 feet.100 Prior to landfall in Florida, Irma caused significant damage in the U.S. Virgin Islands and parts of Puerto Rico as a Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph wind speeds (see Ch. doi: USGCRP, 2017: Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation [web site]. 2: Our Changing Climate. certainty in Key Findings. Multiple studies have projected that urban areas, including those in the Southeast, will be adversely affected by climate change in a variety of ways. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. These flooding occurrences increased more than 50% in 2015 compared to 2014.58 In 2016, three all-time records were either tied (14 days at Key West, FL) or broken (50 days at Charleston, SC, and 38 days at Savannah, GA). While 2017 tied the previous record year of 2011 for the total number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters16the year broke the all-time previous record high costs by reaching $306.2 billion in damages (in 2017 dollars; $297 billion in 2015 dollars). Costanza, J., S. Beck, M. Pyne, A. Terando, M. J. Rubino, R. White, and Jaime Collazo, 2016: Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the Southeastern United States. WebImportant industrial clusters in the rural coastal region include aerospace and defense, food processing and manufacturing, and energy, among others. Already, in response to climate change, plant hardiness zones in certain areas are moving northward and are expected to continue their northward and upslope progression.139,142,146,147 Continued reductions in the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes are expected to change which species are able to survive and thrive in a given location (Figure 19.15). Griffith, J. Although the total population of Latinos is often smaller in rural areas than urban areas, the proportion of Latinos is often greater in rural places. High rainfall totals were experienced in many impacted areas, with Fort Pierce, Florida, receiving the highest rainfall of more than 21.5 inches100 and the Florida Keys receiving 12 inches of rain.84,102 Flooding occurred on most rivers in northern Florida and in many rivers in both Georgia and South Carolina to the point that rescues were required. Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA), Climate Resilience Pilot Program, Washington, DC, 4 pp. EPA, 2017: Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. Virgina Products and industries Hauer, M. E., J. M. Evans, and D. R. Mishra, 2016: Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States. Florida Climate Institute, Gainesville, FL, 20 pp. The rainfall sparked inland flooding that led to three dam breaches and the destruction of countless roads and homes (see Figure 19.13 showing flash flooding impacts to inland roads). Doney, S. C., V. J. Fabry, R. A. Feely, and J. Stephens, S. L., J. J. Moghaddas, C. Edminster, C. E. Fiedler, S. Haase, M. Harrington, J. E. Keeley, E. E. Knapp, J. D. McIver, K. Metlen, C. N. Skinner, and A. Youngblood, 2009: Fire treatment effects on vegetation structure, fuels, and potential fire severity in western U.S. forests. Permission of the copyright owner must be obtained. Osland, M. J., R. H. Day, C. T. Hall, M. D. Brumfield, J. L. Dugas, and W. R. Jones, 2017: Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: Climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients. For centuries, people have worked in industries such as fishing, farming, and forestry. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss, 2012: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. 6: Forests, KM 1 and KM 3).274, Wildfire is a well-known risk in the Southeast region, where it occurs with greater frequency than any other U.S. region.275 However, mitigation strategies, particularly the use of prescribed fire, can significantly reduce wildfire risk and have been widely adopted across rural communities in the Southeast.190 A doubling of prescribed fire at the landscape scale has been found to reduce wildfire ignitions by a factor of four,4 while it is well documented that prescribed fire reduces the potential for crown fire in treated forest stands.276With greater projected fire risks,191,277 more attention on how to foster fire-adapted communities offers opportunities for risk reduction (see Case Study Prescribed Fire and Key Message 3).278,279, Heat-related health threats are already a risk in outdoor jobs and activities. Volume 9 Version 2.0: Southeastern States (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi) . In western South America, a large coastal plain lies between the Andes Mountains and the Pacific Ocean. Cities such as Charleston and Miami have already begun to improve storm water infrastructure and explore natural and nature-based infrastructure design to reduce future flood risk. Regional economic integration depends upon robust market relationships and communications between rural and urban areas. Site Map. Island Press, Washington, DC. Many indicators of vulnerability are dynamic, so that adaptation and other changes can affect the patterns of vulnerability to heat and other climate stressors over time. Swanteson-Franz, R. J., D. J. Krofcheck, and M. D. Hurteau, 2018: Quantifying forest carbon dynamics as a function of tree species composition and management under projected climate. B., 2018: 2017 U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: A historic year in context. Although rural areas have some distinct economic attributes, they also increasingly mirror development patterns in more populated locals. Since then, annual average temperatures have warmed to levels above the 1930s; the decade of the 2010s through 2017 has been warmer than any previous decade (App. Figure 3. Southeast - Fourth National Climate Assessment Office of Sustainability, Louisville, KY, 24 pp. A. Knott, and C. M. Oswalt, 2017: Divergence of species responses to climate change. Butterworth, M. K., C. W. Morin, and A. C. Comrie, 2017: An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. The impacts from these changes are becoming visible as 1) flooding increases stress on infrastructure, ecosystems, and populations; 2) warming temperatures affect human health and bring about temporal and geographic shifts in the natural environment and landscapes; and 3) wildfires and growing wildfire risk create challenges for natural resource managers and impacted communities. A. Whittington, and R. Paperno, 2016: Resilience of a tropical sport fish population to a severe cold event varies across five estuaries in southern Florida. USDA, Forest Service, Washington Office, Washington, DC, 218 pp. Bernatchez, A., and L. Lapointe, 2012: Cooler temperatures favour growth of wild leek (Allium tricoccum), a deciduous forest spring ephemeral. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, 37 pp. The depth of discussion for any particular topic and Key Message is dependent on the availability of supporting literature and chapter length limitations. Four counties in Southeast Florida formed a climate compact in 2010 to address climate change impacts, including sea level rise and high tide flooding.91 Recently updated in 2017, their climate action plan was one of the first intergovernmental collaborations to address climate change, adaptation, and mitigation in the country. As building and rebuilding in flood-prone areas continue, the risks of the kinds of major losses seen in these events will continue to grow. 3 Sigma Consultants for Tennessee Department of Transportation, Nashville, TN, 49 pp. B. C. Jackson, J. Kleypas, J. M. Lough, P. Marshall, M. Nystrm, S. R. Palumbi, J. M. Pandolfi, B. Rosen, and J. Roughgarden, 2003: Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. - The regions more temperate ecosystems include hardwood forests, spruce-fir forests, pine-dominated forests, and salt marshes. This is a large industry because the trees tend to grow faster in the Coastal Plains, and the wood is more textured. Detection and attribution of flood events are difficult due to multiple variables that cause flooding. Winter air temperature extremes (for example, freezing and chilling events) constrain the northern limit of many tropical and subtropical species.30,48,127,132,135,138,139,140,141,142,143,144,145,148,149,150,152,166,167,168,169,170,172,173,174,175,176,177,178 In the future, warmer winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the northward movement of cold-sensitive species, often at the expense of cold-tolerant species.132,135,142,145,149,150,152,166,169,173,179 Certain ecosystems are located near thresholds where small changes in winter air temperature regimes can trigger comparatively large and abrupt landscape-scale ecological changes (i.e., ecological regime shifts).135,145,152, Changing fire regimes are expected to have a large impact on natural systems. Increasing precipitation and extreme weather events will likely impact roads, freight rail, and passenger rail, which will likely have cascading effects across the region. Changing winter temperature extremes, wildfire patterns, sea levels, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and warming ocean temperatures are expected to redistribute species and greatly modify ecosystems (very likely, high confidence). 9: Oceans, KM 2).35,252 While adaptation and resilience can moderate climate change impacts, rural areas generally face other stressors, such as poverty and limited access to healthcare, which will make coping to these climate-related challenges more difficult. Kinniburgh, F., M. G. Simonton, and C. Allouch, 2015: Come heat and high water: Climate risk in the Southeastern U.S. and Texas. For example, the Louisville, Kentucky, metro government conducted an urban heat management study and installed 145,000 square feet of cool roofs as part of their goal to lessen the risk of climate change impacts.28, The transmission of vector-borne diseases, which are spread by the bite of an animal such as a mosquito or tick, is complex and depends on a number of factors, including weather and climate, vegetation, animal host populations, and human activities (Ch. Authors with specific expertise in each of these areas were sought, and a draft outline built around these issues was developed. The city has responded by making physical modifications, developing a more robust disaster response plan, and improving planning and monitoring prior to flood events. South Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (SFRCCC), Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Palm Beach Counties, FL. McNeill, R., D. J. Nelson, and D. Wilson, 2014: Water's edge: The crisis of rising sea levels.

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